First of all, the word "positive" in previous years was changed to "more positive". The last time this statement was put forward was in 2020, and everyone knew what happened at that time. This time, I am more active and spend money in the market.This is beyond my expectation. Although I maintain the view that A shares are entering a bull market, my friends who have been watching it know that I am pessimistic.In my opinion, in terms of capacity, today's science and technology innovation board is not as good as Beijing Jiao Tong 50, but in the long run, it may not be.
Secondly, the change from "prudent" to "moderately loose" in previous years is a major change in the caliber of monetary policy. Moderate easing was last proposed in 2010, and our caliber in the past 14 years has been consistent and steady. No matter how radical the interest rate cuts and RRR cuts are, no matter how loose they look from the behavior, they just don't let go. This is the first change in 14 years, with emphasis on the first time.Finally, I wish you all well.So in my last post, I emphasized that A shares would fluctuate between 3150 points and 200 points, and fell below 3150 points. But I should have thought that the bottom of the market was rising and the consolidation was going up. Finally, I paid the bill for my cognition: "I'm sorry".
How to judge whether it is less than expected? It is very simple. If the high-end large-cap stocks such as banks, oil and coal rise, it will be bad. If the large-cap stocks rise and the index rises (28 differentiation), but the small and medium-cap stocks do not rise, it will also be bad. This is the big money to pull the large-cap stocks up to cover the shipment of individual stocks. And vice versa."Implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, enrich and improve the policy toolbox, and strengthen unconventional countercyclical adjustment."On the contrary, if it is good, once it breaks through the resistance range of 3440-3490, large funds will rush to escape as at the end of September and quickly attack 3500-3700.
Strategy guide
12-13
Strategy guide 12-13
Strategy guide
12-13